[PDF] from researchgate.net Intensity based casualty models: Case study of bhuj and latur earthquake in india

Proceedings of the 15th World Conference on Earthquake Engineering

Shashank Pathak

2012-09-24

Casualty data from Latur (1993) and Bhuj (2001) earthquakes in India are analyzed to study the relationship of death rates with shaking intensity. A strong correlation is noted between intensity and death rates (correlation coefficient ~0.77). The expected (median) death rates are 0.31%, 1.77%, and 19.45% for intensity VII, VIII and IX in case of Latur, and 0.0029%, 0.049%, 1.92% and 4.92% for intensity VII, VIII, IX and X in case of Bhuj. The significantly higher death rates in Latur are due to building typologies and the time of the event. Thus, there is a factor of ~100 for intensity VII and a factor of ~10 for intensity IX, indicating that the empirical casualty models should be area specific and not country specific. A two-parameter empirical model has been proposed.